Okay everybody. It’s time to do annual Oscar predictions for this very delayed ceremony. As always, we start out with the tech categories, beginning with shorts, sound and special effects.
ANIMATED SHORT
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
Okay, so here’s the thing about the shorts. Few of the voters will actually pick anything for these, because most of them didn’t watch them. That leaves only the short filmmakers themselves as the ones voting, so it usually is worth it to actually watch these if you’re trying to predict the winner. I saw all the animated shorts and to me the clear winner by a long shot is the Chinese short Opera, which stands apart from all the others as something entirely different and intriguing, as well as artful. But If Anything Happens I Love You is about a school shooting tragedy and hits you emotionally, which helps a lot with these shorts.
Winner: If Anything Happens I Love You
Alternate: Opera
Dark Horse: Burrow
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
I have not seen the doc or live action shorts, so I simply have to look them up and go by odds. From what I’ve read, A Concerto is a Conversation is produced by Ava Duvernay, so I think that one has the edge.
Winner: A Concerto is a Conversation
Alternate: A Love Song for Latasha
Dark Horse: Hunger Ward
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
From what I read about the live action shorts, Feeling Through is the most emotional one, and about a deaf and blind man (plus the short is produced by Oscar winner Marlee Matlin), but Two Distant Strangers is timely and right on its heels.
Winner: Feeling Through
Alternate: Two Distant Strangers
Dark Horse: The Letter Room (Oscar Isaac is in this and sometimes the shorts with a famous person in them will win)
SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Okay, so finally, after many, many years of me begging and pleading for them to do this, the Academy has finally combined the sound mixing and editing awards into one, easily defined category- best sound. As such, I would be shocked if this did not go to the movie with the word “sound” in its title, wouldn’t you? One of the sound precursor awards did go to Sound of Metal, as did the Bafta award. So I’d bet on that for sure. Though I think Soul does stand a chance here as well.
Winner: Sound of Metal
Alternate: Soul
Dark Horse: Greyhound (this won a sound precursor award too, but that was only sound editors voting and this is the whole Academy, most of whom probably didn’t see this film)
VISUAL EFFECTS
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
So the VFX society awarded this to The Midnight Sky, but that guild has a pretty poor track record of matching Oscar. I’d stick with Tenet for this, which was Bafta’s choice, and likely the only movie the voters have seen in the category.
Winner: Tenet
Alternate: The Midnight Sky
Dark Horse: Mulan
