BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
The late Chadwick Boseman almost swept the precursors, but then Anthony Hopkins came in and took the BAFTA last week. You might think well, he’s British right, so maybe that doesn’t mean anything, but…here’s the thing. The Father has 6 Oscar nominations including Best Picture while Ma Rainey does not. The Best Actor winner usually correlates to a Best Picture nominee and the thing about BAFTA is its membership has crossover with the Academy. It has matched the last six Oscar winners for Best Actor while SAG (the other precursor with Academy membership crossover) has not. So that BAFTA win could be a real signal, and The Father is definitely picking up steam as more people catch up with it more recently than Ma Rainey. The other thing is that though there’s an enormous amount of goodwill and sentiment towards Boseman, Hopkins is not absent that entirely, as an acting legend whose first and only Oscar win was thirty years ago for Silence of the Lambs. This is closer than people think.
Winner: Anthony Hopkins (going with an upset here)
Alternate: Chadwick Boseman
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Oh boy. What to do in this category? To be honest, it’s kind of anybody’s game. Four out of these five have won a major precursor award, with Day taking the Golden Globe, Davis the SAG, Mulligan the Critics Choice, and McDormand the BAFTA. Only Kirby misses out on something- does that tee her up for an out of nowhere Oscar win? It’s not impossible! All we know is the vote is going to be very fractured here, so anything could happen. Trying to reason it out, I think it’s between Davis, Day and Mulligan rather than McDormand or Kirby, as McDormand probably only won BAFTA because those other three weren’t even nominated there. And she has two lead acting Oscars already (though she is in the Best Picture frontrunner, and that’s always a boost). But of the former three, all have factors going against them. Day’s biggest negative is she’s her movie’s sole nomination- it’s the biggest, juiciest role, the kind that usually does win Oscars, but how many people saw that film? I have NO idea. I’m flying blind on that so I’m afraid to predict her based on the Globe win alone, as she’s still basically an unknown (and the HFPA has no crossover with Academy members). Mulligan is in a Best Picture nominee, but why hasn’t she won any other precursor awards besides Critic’s Choice? She was snubbed by the BAFTA jury for the nomination, so we’ll never know if she would have won there, but I feel like she should have taken SAG if she was ahead in this group. And now we get to Davis- the SAG win is a big deal, but she has a history of being really beloved by SAG whenever she’s nominated there. Ma Rainey didn’t make it into Best Picture, so the film is weaker than the others, but still widely. She has an Oscar already, but it was in supporting and she’s respected enough to have two. I think she can come out ahead in this field, but I have this nagging feeling about Andra Day in spite of everything. I’m going to take a big chance and go with the newcomer.
Winner: Andra Day
Alternate: Viola Davis
Dark Horse: Carey Mulligan (but it could be either of the other two as well!)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
This one is easier, as we have a typical sweeper, with Daniel Kaluuya in possession of the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA awards. I see no reason not to predict him, even if his co-star siphons off votes from him. He’ll likely still win.
Winner: Daniel Kaluuya
Alternate: Sacha Baron Cohen (just a guess due to Borat love, but unlikely)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
This was once the wide open acting field, but it very quickly narrowed itself down, as Youn Yuh-jung won back to back industry awards with SAG and BAFTA. As we know, both of those cross over with Academy membership, so in my opinion, she has this nearly in the bag, as the prize for Minari.
Winner: Youn Yuh-jung
Alternate: Maria Bakalova (the nomination was the real win for her here)
Dark Horse: Glenn Close (once again not her year, but they’re gonna have to give it to her sometime)
