Now we’re on the final categories of Best Picture and Best Director.
BEST DIRECTOR
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
After winning the DGA and every other prize for Best Director this season, it would be shocking if Chloe Zhao didn’t win the Oscar. I know I said Sam Mendes was locked for it last year too and he didn’t win, but this one would be even more shocking. I don’t know who would win instead of her either. She’s winning and making history as the second woman to win this and the first woman of color.
Winner: Chloe Zhao
Alternate: Lee Isaac Chung (total guess- I have no clue who’s in second place here)
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Picture is always a little bit trickier because of the preferential ballot, which can lead to upsets (and has caused me to wrongly predict this category for the last few years, as my alternate has pulled it off time and again). This time though, with Nomadland winning PGA/DGA, plus BAFTA and the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, it sure seems like a sweeper. But you never know. There also doesn’t seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for it, just a consensus that it should come out on top. But weird things can happen on this ballot anyway. If we’re looking for weakness in it, it comes with the fact that it didn’t get a SAG ensemble nomination, which could mean that the actors aren’t necessarily behind it. As the biggest branch of the Academy, they count for quite a lot and if there’s an upset (like last year with Parasite) it usually comes from the SAG winner, which this year was Trial of the Chicago 7 (below). That also won ACE, the editing guild, so those two fairly important guilds might tell us that’s the movie in second place, bound to get a lot of #2 and #3 votes where it could win if the counting goes past the first round.
But there are other movies in here that could eat those votes as well, movies like Minari (below) or Judas and the Black Messiah, maybe Sound of Metal. Those are all fairly well liked, consensus films. Mank and Promising Young Woman are on the more divisive side, meaning they’ll probably end up with lots of #1 votes, but also at the bottom of people’s ballots. I’m not sure where The Father lands, as that one seems pretty passionately loved as well, but is it divisive? Ultimately, I don’t know if anything can overcome Nomadland’s consensus choice. I think it’s in good shape to go all the way, unless there’s some sort of backlash to it or resistance that isn’t getting picked up or reported on (sometimes that can happen to a movie, like La La Land, which faced hard campaigning against it at the end).
This year, I feel it’ll just wind up with the predicted pairing of PIcture/Director (which happens a lot less than it used to). Next year could be interesting, because the Academy is going back to a flat ten nominees, but we’ll have to see how that affects the voting. I think there’s not a lot of energy for the Oscar race this year, as most people haven’t watched these films (I don’t even think many of the voters have) and with no bigger, more populist box office hits in the lineup (how could there be), it feels pretty insular. As for me personally, my favorite of these films were Mank and The Father, which probably stand no chance, so I also feel somewhat removed from it all. Here’s to next year being better.
Winner: Nomadland
Alternate: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Dark Horse: Minari
