The nominees for the Visual Effects Society are here, which is the visual effects guild of the industry. I would say these first five are all basically locked for the Oscar nom too, but there may be another one that sneaks in to the main category.
2022 VES NOMINATIONS
Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
DUNE
GODZILLA VS. KONG
THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS
NO TIME TO DIE
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
CANDYMAN
LAST NIGHT IN SOHO
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE LAST DUEL
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Outstanding Visual Effects in an Animated Feature
ENCANTO
LUCA
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON
SING 2
THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES