Ok, here we go. Unlike the Academy, I respect each branch, so I will be making my predictions for all the important categories that got kicked off the telecast this year and will be tweeted out before the show even starts.
BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Dune has got the sound category locked up, in my opinion. It’s won every guild award, including the MPSE and CAS, plus the BAFTA, and sound was one of the technical elements for which the film was most praised. Occasionally when this category used to be split, an action movie would take editing and a musical might win mixing, but now that it’s one, I’d say Dune has it in the bag.
Winner: Dune
Alternate: West Side Story
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
So the guild liked Coming 2 America for this, but recent wins from BAFTA and BFCA for The Eyes of Tammy Faye seem to add to Jessica Chastain’s momentum in Best Actress, where for whatever reason, the category has often been paired with Best Makeup even if it’s a subpar movie (which indicates to me that people think they’re awarding Best Makeup Acting, but whatever). I think Tammy Faye will prevail in this case (thought frankly the makeup in that was extremely un-impressive and distracting, but alas).
Winner: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Alternate: Dune
Dark Horse: Cruella
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
This is another area Dune has dominated, winning the guild and BAFTA, and I think it should also come out on top here, but there’s perhaps a chance the Academy wants to give Spider-Man something? This is the only place it could, so there’s that.
Winner: Dune
Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Oh boy. The bane of my existence this time of year are the shorts. Sorry, but I never get to see them (this year I didn’t even see the animated ones) and I always feel like I’m going for a shot in the dark based on reputation, plot summary or cast. In this case, my best guess is The Queen of Basketball, which I hear if the most emotionally moving (which is usually the winner).
Winner: The Queen of Basketball
Alternate: When We Were Bullies
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu- Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
So, Riz Ahmed is the star of The Long Goodbye and that’s basically the reason I’m picking it. In the past, when there’s a name in the live action short, it’s won, so there you go.
Winner: The Long Goodbye
Alternate: The Dress
Dark Horse: Please Hold
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Robin Robin is the most traditional, cutesy winner here. Truth is, not many people vote for these categories except for the branches themselves, but even so, the broadest animated short usually wins.
Winner: Robin Robin
Alternate: The Windshield Wiper
Dark Horse: Bestia (very dark, but endorsed but Guillermo del Toro)
