Today we’re on to the other feature film nominees, editing and the toss up categories this year- the screenplays.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
I don’t see any way that Encanto doesn’t take this. It became sort of a phenomenon on Disney+ this winter, especially the soundtrack, and the ubiquitousness of the movie will put it in front. Netflix’s The Mitchells vs. The Machines had some clout with the Annie Awards and some of the guilds, but the Academy very rarely is even aware of the non-Disney or Pixar movie in this category, so this is just another one of those years.
Winner: Encanto
Alternate: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Dark Horse: Flee
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
Summer of Soul has dominated this category all season long and there’s no reason to think that changes with the Academy. It’s the populist choice and now that the whole Academy votes on this category (which never used to be the case), the populist choice always wins.
Winner: Summer of Soul
Alternate: Flee
Dark Horse: Attica
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Poor Flee. It made history by being nominated in three different categories, yet it’s unlikely to win any of them. Drive My Car is clearly the winner here, having been nominated in Picture and Director as well (no movie that got those extra nominations in this category has ever lost, and Drive My Car is the first Japanese movie to do so).
Winner: Drive My Car
Alternate: Flee
Dark Horse: The Worst Person in the World (also got a screenplay nom)
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Yet another category that got kicked off the show and such an important one! So aggravating. Not only that, but this is one of the most open races of the night, one that could signal where the results are heading and we get to find out who won it on twitter before the show starts? What fucking bullshit. I’ll never not be angry about this. It’s totally open, with no frontrunner, as the guild (ACE) went to King Richard, BAFTA chose No Time to Die (not nominated) and BFCA went with West Side Story. I do think this could be a total surprise winner, and I’m kind of tempted to want to go with Power of the Dog? The editing is so key to the impact of the film, I wouldn’t be shocked if it took this.
Winner: The Power of the Dog
Alternate: King Richard
Dark Horse: West Side Story
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
So this one’s open as well, because WGA went with Don’t Look Up while BAFTA chose Licorice Pizza and BFCA picked Belfast. I think I’m going with Belfast because the Academy liked that movie more than the other films, giving it 7 nominations and this is the only real chance for it to win something. I think the WGA felt like Licorice Pizza wasn’t “important” enough despite PTA’s overdue status and if the Academy feels similarly, Belfast is the other alternative (with Kenneth Branagh being overdue as well).
Winner: Belfast
Alternate: Don’t Look Up
Dark Horse: Licorice Pizza
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
I once thought this was Power of the Dog’s to lose, but the movie cratered so much during the guild run that I now wonder if Campion is barely hanging on in director. Then I thought The Lost Daughter was going to be the favorite after winning the Scripter award, but CODA came in and surprised everyone by quickly winning BAFTA and WGA nearly back to back. With that track record, I think it has to win here too, but honestly, that particular screenplay winning is an embarrassment (and I liked the movie! But it’s nothing if not predictable and formulaic).
Winner: CODA
Alternate: The Lost Daughter
Dark Horse: Drive My Car (this could happen if the vote’s really fractured)
