Okay, we’re on to the acting awards, which appear to be almost locked 4/4 this year.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
The weird thing about Best Actress this year is that none of them are in a Best Picture nominee. That means the voters didn’t like any of these movies that much and it makes it harder to figure out who they’re leaning towards. Actors like big, transformative (re: hammy) makeup acting, as I said earlier and I think that’s why Jessica Chastain won SAG, so…I guess I’m going to stick with her. We have no real precursors to go by other than SAG, so there’s not much reason to pick anyone other than her. Nicole Kidman won the Golden Globe but that didn’t get aired on TV. The BAFTA went to someone else altogether because none of these women were nominated there. The Lost Daughter has a screenplay nomination and a supporting nom for Jessie Buckley, but Being the Ricardos got three acting nominations, so do those cancel each other out? The other thing in Chastain’s favor is this is her third nomination and she hasn’t won yet, while Cruz, Kidman and Colman already have Oscars (forget Stewart. No one likes Spencer). Someone could easily upset with a really fractured vote, but given Tammy Faye’s likely win in makeup too, I’m just gonna go with her. There have definitely been worse movies to win this category, unfortunately.
Winner: Jessica Chastain
Alternate: Penelope Cruz (I’m thinking this could happen because her role stands apart from the others as a non-biopic in an accessible film, and more people may have seen Parallel Mothers than we know of, because Spain didn’t submit it for the International Feature category- had it done so it would have likely been nominated and then this would feel like a different conversation. Still, the Academy’s ever growing bloc of international voters may come through here).
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Smith appears to be the unstoppable frontrunner, as he’s won every precursor, even BAFTA. I once thought Cumberbatch would (and should) be competitive here, but again, Power of the Dog has totally cratered in recent weeks, everywhere, and the Academy did like King Richard a lot There’s no reason to think Smith won’t be crowned for his third nomination after a long, successful career (though I think he was a lot better in The Pursuit of Happiness).
Winner: Will Smith
Alternate: Benedict Cumberbatch
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
It seemed to be decided around the time of the Globes that DeBose was going to be the place to give West Side Story an award, and for the same role that won Rita Moreno an Oscar 50 years ago. DeBose has won every precursor as well and doesn’t seem now to have any real competition here for her first screen role. She’s got this.
Winner: Ariana DeBose
Alternate: none
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee was the critical frontrunner for months, winning most of the critics awards, but as soon as SAG came around, the CODA surge began with Troy Kotsur and now he seems insurmountable, after taking BAFTA and BFCA as well. He was good in the movie and it will be a history making award, but I’d say there may still be a tiny chance for someone else. Unlikely though.
Winner: Troy Kotsur
Alternate: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Dark Horse: Ciaran Hinds
