Now these are the fun categories this year, because you could argue they’re all up in the air except for one. And that’s because BAFTA and SAG this year matched 0-4, which hasn’t happened in 20 years. What does that mean? We’re going to have to reason it out, which makes it more fun.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
The toughest race of the night. You can write off Ana de Armas, Riseborough, and Michelle Williams, no matter what weird controversy exists because of Riseborough’s out of nowhere nomination. She stands no chance with the whole Academy voting. It’s between Michelle Yeoh, who stars in the Best Picture frontrunner and would make history as the first Asian Best Actress winner, and Cate Blanchett, vying for her third Oscar in a career best performance which would be its film’s (likely) only Oscar win. Very difficult. Yeoh won the SAG over Blanchett, but Blanchett has BAFTA (both were Globes winners in different categories). BAFTA has traditionally picked the winner in a split race, and Tar has 6 nominations so it’s definitely strong enough to put Blanchett over the top. Can history win the day or are there enough international voters in the Academy now that think they already voted for EEAO in enough categories and will go with Blanchett in this one? I think Michelle Yeoh might have enough momentum in this last week of voting to carry her though to a historic win.
Winner: Michelle Yeoh
Alternate: Cate Blanchett
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Another two person race here with Best Actor. Brendan Fraser won SAG and Critics Choice for The Whale, while Austin Butler took the Golden Globe and BAFTA. I think ultimately in these cases it comes down to the strength of the film, and Elvis is a Best Picture nominee that could win a few Oscars on the night. The Whale did not make it into Best Picture and I think that’s ultimately what counts the most.
Winner: Austin Butler
Alternate: Brendan Fraser
Dark Horse: Colin Farrell (this is unlikely since he lost BAFTA to Butler though- if he was going to win anywhere it should have happened there; that it didn’t indicates the international voters are behind Butler)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Another one that’s completely up in the air! This one is even more open because we have three different winners in the precursors. Angela Bassett took the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards (both non-industry voters) while Kerry Condon won the BAFTA and Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG. Oy. So who prevails? I think JLC winning SAG indicates there’s a split vote for the “overdue narrative” that will go some to her, some to Bassett. Bassett’s film is also not a Best Picture nominee. But JLC has competition with co-star Hsu from EEAO. BAFTA voters on the other hand are lined up behind Condon, whose film is a Best Picture contender and might be the only place to award it on Oscar night. BAFTA has often predicted a surprise winner in this category before, so I’m thinking Kerry Condon will take it.
Winner: Kerry Condon
Alternate: Jamie Lee Curtis
Dark Horse: Hong Chau – I think this is possible if the vote splits all over the place and we get a winner who hasn’t won anything yet
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
This one is easier to call. Ke Huy Quan has won everything except BAFTA, but in that case, the combination of Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG plus being in the Best Picture frontrunner is more important. He’s the closest to a lock in the acting categories. Anything else would be a big surprise.
Winner: Ke Huy Quan
Alternate: Barry Keoghan (BAFTA winner)
