Unfortunately these are not as fun to talk about today because they are pretty much set in stone, as you’ll see.
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
We go by the precursors here, and the fact of the matter is, EEAO has won the DGA, PGA and SAG (where it set a record by winning 4 prizes, the first time that’s ever happened at SAG). It’s a guild sweeper and no guild sweeper has ever lost Best Picture. It’s true that BAFTA did not like it much at all, and only gave it a single award in editing, but they also didn’t like Birdman back in 2014, which won all the guilds too and then the Oscar. When you have a guild sweeper they pretty much can’t be beaten. Of course, nothing’s ever possible until it happens, but I simply have no reason to predict anything else. If even one of the guilds had gone another way, I might be able to make a case for something, but no real alternative has emerged. Even the BAFTA favorite, All Quiet on the Western Front, has virtually no guild presence.
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Top Gun: Maverick
Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
This is similar to Best Picture in that there’s no clear alternative to the Best Picture frontrunner. At BAFTA they gave director to All Quiet’s Edward Berger, who wasn’t even nominated here. That means the DGA winners, the Daniels, are the frontrunners to win and I don’t even know who could challenge them. Theoretically, Steven Spielberg could do it, but he’s won nothing for The Fabelmans this whole season. Maybe Todd Field comes out of nowhere as a place to honor Tar that’s not Cate Blanchett? I could kinda imagine that, but it would be a huge surprise. I don’t really see it happening.
Winner: The Daniels
Alternate: Steven Spielberg
Dark Horse: Todd Field
