EMMY WATCH: Final Predictions- Variety, Reality, Movie/Mini Categories

So, ahead of the show tomorrow night, I'm going to do a quick run-through of my final predictions for the rest of these categories: 

Outstanding Variety Series:

• Jimmy Kimmel Live!
• Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
• Real Time with Bill Maher
• Saturday Night Live
• The Colbert Report
• The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

I'm real sick and tired of The Daily Show winning this category every single year, but since we're going on 10 years running, I feel I have to predict it until it actually loses.  

Will Win: The Daily Show

Should Win: The Colbert Report (I've thought this for the last few years at least)

Dark Horse: Jimmy Kimmel Live! (he sent in the episode where Matt Damon hijacked the show and there were about 50 different celebrity cameos- if anything takes down Jon Stewart it will be that) 

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program:

• Dancing With the Stars
• Project Runway
• So You Think You Can Dance
• The Amazing Race
• The Voice
• Top Chef

Will Win: The Amazing Race (this is kind of another Daily Show-type situation) 

Should Win: Top Chef

Dark Horse: Top Chef (the only thing that took Race down once in the past) 

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie:

• James Cromwell (American Horror Story: Asylum) 
• Zachary Quinto (American Horror Story: Asylum) 
• Scott Bakula (Behind the Candelabra) 
• John Benjamin Hickey (The Big C: Hereafter) 
• Peter Mullan (Top of the Lake) 

Will Win: James Cromwell (veteran status)

Should Win: Peter Mullan

Dark Horse: Peter Mullan (he really was terrific in Top of the Lake- his pure evilness could grab their attention in a way the others didn't) 

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie:

• Sarah Paulsen (American Horror Story: Asylum) 
• Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals) 
• Charlotte Rampling (Restless) 
• Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnolias) 
• Imelda Staunton (The Girl) 

Will Win: Sarah Paulsen

Should Win: Sarah Paulsen

Dark Horse: Charlotte Rampling

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie:

• Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra) 
• Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra) 
• Benedict Cumberbatch (Parade's End) 
• Al Pacino (Phil Spector) 
• Toby Jones (The Girl) 

Will Win: Michael Douglas

Should Win: Michael Douglas

Dark Horse: None- Michael Douglas will win this category- it's the biggest lock of the night

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie:

• Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum)
• Helen Mirren (Phil Spector) 
• Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals) 
• Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter) 
• Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake) 

Will Win: Jessica Lange

Should Win: Elisabeth Moss

Dark Horse: Elisabeth Moss (really crossing my fingers for this one!) 

Outstanding Miniseries or Movie:

• American Horror Story: Asylum
• Behind the Candelabra
• Phil Spector
• Political Animals
• The Bible
• Top of the Lake

Will Win: Behind the Candelabra

Should Win: Top of the Lake

Dark Horse: Top of the Lake (not a lot of hope for it though; Behind the Candelabra is pretty locked here) 

Peter Dinklage on Sesame Street

Check out Tyrion Lannister with the Muppets! 

EMMY WATCH: Predictions- Drama Series

Outstanding Drama Series:

• Breaking Bad
• Downton Abbey
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland
• House of Cards
• Mad Men

So, this is the big category of the night, because everyone is expecting Breaking Bad to finally win Drama Series, and you can count me in as one of those people. I think this is its year, it has all the momentum and all the buzz, it's basically the only show anyone has talked about for the last month. There's no reason it shouldn't finally pull it off, even if the six episodes they submitted (which are from the first part of the season, that aired a year ago) are actually just as good as Homeland's, which didn't have a great Season 2 overall, but did have a great six episodes to submit in the category. I think if Breaking Bad has any competition it's from last year's winner, but the overwhelming cultural obsession with Breaking Bad at the moment threatens to drown everything else out. It has one more shot for the final season next year, but by then it will have been off the air for a long time (not that that may matter, given the absolutely stunning handful of episodes they're going to have for that submission- in fact, it's probably more of a lock next year than this year). The time just feels right- they haven't rewarded it up to this point because it's a dark and gritty show about drug dealing and crime, and the Emmys tend to want to stick with more upright class (see repeat favorites like The West Wing and Mad Men), but when a show gets too huge to ignore they do give in. That's what happened with The Sopranos- it took until its fifth season to win Best Drama Series, but it finally happened when it was too big to ignore, and that's the model I'm following here with this show. It's going to win. Of the rest of them, like I said, I don't see much of a shot for anything except Homeland as an alternative, or maybe House of Cards because of the big name talent involved behind the scenes and the political subject matter they like, but the chances are pretty remote.

Will Win: Breaking Bad

Should Win: Breaking Bad

Dark Horse: Homeland

TEASER: "Toy Story of Terror"

I'm so excited! A new Toy Story short will be premiering on ABC October 16th, so mark your calendars! 

TRAILER: "Burton and Taylor"

The BBC movie Burton and Taylor, starring Helena Bonham Carter and Dominic West, is set to air on October 16th. Well, it's got to be better than Liz and Dick, right? 

EMMY WATCH: Predictions- Lead Actor & Actress in a Drama Series

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series:

• Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel) 
• Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
• Claire Danes (Homeland)
• Robin Wright (House of Cards)
• Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
• Connie Britton (Nashville)
• Kerry Washington (Scandal) 

In this heavily crowded category, there are a few people who I don't think stand much of a chance, and that's Elisabeth Moss, Connie Britton and Michelle Dockery. Dockery is only nominated because the Academy loves Downton Abbey so much, but she really doesn't do much on that show, and Connie Britton they've just decided they love overall, ever since they finally noticed her for the later seasons of Friday Night Lights. Since then she's constantly been nominated, even for a (much) lesser show. As for Elisabeth Moss, I'd love to see her win an Emmy, but Mad Men is still batting .000 in acting wins, and she really didn't get much to do this season either. So that leaves us with Wright, Washington, Danes and Farmiga. I really think Robin Wright was nominated on name recognition alone, she's really a supporting character on House of Cards, and her screen time in her episode proves it. Kerry Washington was nominated this season because her show is a hugely popular nighttime soap, but her acting, for me, doesn't compare with that of Claire Danes or Vera Farmiga. Of those two, it could honestly be either one, because the episode Farmiga submitted gives her a chance to show enormous range and over the top theatrics, and she really could win on the impact of that episode alone. But Claire Danes' episode if fantastic for her as well, and I truly think her performance here was better than the one she won with last year, where Carrie was manic and off her meds. So I'm going to say, given how the Emmys love their repeat winners, that Claire Danes takes it again. And she'd be perfectly deserving if she did, so that's fine with me.

Will Win: Claire Danes

Should Win: Claire Danes

Dark Horse: Vera Farmiga

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:

• Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
• Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
• Damian Lewis (Homeland)
• Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
• Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
• Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom) 

Man, now this is another really tough one to call. Aside from Hugh Bonneville, every single one of these guys could win and deserve it. They're all fantastic on their respective shows and in their submitted episodes. Jon Hamm even submitted a great episode this season where he breaks down in front of the office- if there was the slightest chance that a Mad Men actor could actually win an Emmy I might predict him, but I truly think his only chance to win is going to be for his last season, which is now two years away. Kevin Spacey is a two-time Academy Award winner and big name, and he's great on his show, but not that likable (sometimes they like villains but sympathy for the character does play a factor). Jeff Daniels has a great big opening monologue in the pilot episode of The Newsroom, an idealistic Sorkin-esque speech that they used to love on The West Wing, so he could be a possibility, but his character is also missing that likability factor. And of course, there's three time winner Bryan Cranston, who should never be counted out, but his likability has gone increasingly downhill over the seasons as well (you used to be able to relate to him and he was kind of an antihero, but now he's morphed into the outright villain). That leaves Damian Lewis, and even though he's technically a terrorist, he remains much more of a tortured and conflicted figure who suffers a lot and elicits our sympathy, and he also submitted the same episode that Claire Danes did, which is just as great for him as it is her, if not more so. Their scenes together are compelling, emotional and heartwrenching, where Brody has to go through every possible emotion and make us believe it. It's also a better episode than what he won for last year, so I think he and Danes are going to both win for the second straight season.

Will Win: Damian Lewis

Should Win: Damian Lewis

Dark Horse: Kevin Spacey (this is a wild guess, because if there's an upset here it could honestly be anyone besides Hugh Bonneville, but I'll go with Spacey for the big name status) 

Mad Men's Final Season

I knew this was going to happen. For all the rumblings about next year being the final season, there was enough uncertainty over it that I had a feeling they would pull something different and sure enough, here's the twist: Mad Men's last season will be 14 episodes split into two parts, according to the LA Times. The first 7 episodes will air in Spring 2014, to be titled "The Beginning," and the last 7 will air the following spring, in 2015 and be called "The End of an Era."

Of course, this a response to the success of Breaking Bad's final season, which has brought them their biggest ratings ever this year, and the president of AMC, Charlie Collier, says they're "determined to give Mad Men a similar showcase." For his part, creator Matthew Weiner is on board with it as well, saying, "We plan to take advantage of this chance to have a more elaborate story told in two parts, which can resonate a little bit longer in the minds of our audience."

I'm pretty sure Breaking Bad's last season split in two parts was a result of contract issues and had nothing to do with the storytelling, but I guess the 102% ratings spike has kicked off a trend. To be honest, I seriously doubt Mad Men can pull off a similar feat in the ratings, as it's pulled in close to the same number of viewers for about 7 years now, and it's not really the kind of show you feel the urgency to "catch up on" through bingewatching, but I guess we'll see how this goes. It seems totally unnecessary to me though. Everyone will know it's Mad Men's last season, no matter if it airs all at once or not.

EMMY WATCH: Predictions- Supporting Actor & Actress in a Drama Series

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: 

• Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire)
• Jonathan Banks (Breaking Bad) 
• Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad) 
• Jim Carter (Downton Abbey) 
• Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) 
• Mandy Patinkin (Homeland) 

Now, unlike the comedy categories, drama is stacked with some seriously heavy competition (aside from Jim Carter, who doesn't stand a chance). I could see any one of the other 5 winning here, under the right circumstances, so in this scenario I'm just gonna have to go with my gut. Peter Dinklage has won before, but this time he has a really good episode, more screen time than usual (and he has a drunk scene in it, which the Emmys always love). Mandy Patinkin also has a very good episode, and shows some heavy emotion, but his presence is fairly limited throughout the hour. Jonathan Banks gave a very stolid, subdued performance all last season on Breaking Bad, but I don't think his (spoiler alert) death scene in this episode is enough to win it for him (unless his veteran actor status helps him out, but that didn't help Giancarlo Esposito last year). Bobby Cannavale was very big and over the top in his role on Boardwalk, and the Emmys already like this guy, having rewarded him in the past, so he's a real possibility. Can Aaron Paul come back and win a third in a row? Actually, he could. That's pretty rare, but he definitely submitted a good episode, where he gets to be both funny and emotional, and we know the voters already love Jesse and Paul. This is a tough one- I'm not even sure who I think should win here.

Will Win: Aaron Paul (this is very risky, but I'm going to go for it and say he gets a third) 

Should Win: Mandy Patinkin (not for his episode, but for his part on Homeland as a whole, he's the rock of that show) 

Dark Horse: Peter Dinklage (there's something about his episode and knowing they also love his character that makes me think he could take it again with this one) 

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: 

• Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad) 
• Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) 
• Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) 
• Morena Baccarin (Homeland) 
• Christina Hendricks (Mad Men) 
• Christine Baranski (The Good Wife) 

Well, for me, if they're actually watching the episodes there's no contest here. Anna Gunn takes it in a walk. It's by far and away her best episode from last season (it's the one where she tells Walt she's waiting for his cancer to come back) and it really is better than all of these other ones. But unfortunately you can never count out Maggie Smith, who's won two already for Downton. She does nothing different in her episode, but they just love Maggie Smith and seem to want to give it to her every year. Still, given the extra attention on Breaking Bad right now, I'm going to gamble and say that Anna Gunn will take it anyway. As for the rest of them, Hendricks and Baranski don't get much to do in theirs, and Morena Baccarin has a decent one, but there is very little love for that character on Homeland. Emilia Clarke would probably be in third place, but the problem with her is that her scene is at the very end of that GoT episode, and it's only a few minutes long. It is a big, powerful scene (where she unleashes the dragons on those slavemasters), but I still don't think that it's enough for the win in this category, especially if voters have to sit through the rest of the hour first (which they do).

Will Win: Anna Gunn

Should Win: Anna Gunn (fingers crossed) 

Dark Horse: Maggie Smith

Creative Arts Emmy Winners

The Creative Arts Emmys were held last night, which are essentially all the craft categories, like special effects, makeup & hairstyling, casting, etc. Boardwalk Empire, Game of Thrones and House of Cards ran the table in most of them (Boardwalk and GoT pretty much always do). But they're also the place for the awards that have been removed from the Primetime telecast in recent years due to time issues. The significant winners in those categories were:

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series: Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory); (unbelievably winning his first ever Emmy in over 50 years on TV)

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series: Melissa Leo (Louie) 

Guest Actor in a Drama Series: Dan Bucatinsky (Scandal) 

Guest Actress in a Drama Series: Carrie Preston (The Good Wife) 

Reality Host: Tim Gunn & Heidi Klum (Project Runway); (the key to them winning was finally submitting Tim Gunn along with Heidi Klum as host of that show)

Reality Program: Undercover Boss

Variety Special: The Kennedy Center Honors

Animated Program: South Park

Other big wins of the night included Behind the Candelabra, which won nearly every craft category it was nominated for and is a frontrunner to pick up the Best TV Movie or Miniseries Emmy next week. Frontrunners Homeland and Modern Family were pretty much snubbed here, which may or may not mean anything for the Primetime show next weekend, as plenty of shows have won the big prizes without winning anything at the Creative Arts. 

RECAP: The Newsroom 2x09 "Election Night, Part II"

A very sweet, heartwarming finale tonight, which is exactly what I needed after the explosiveness that was Breaking Bad. We pick up on Election Night, with Don, Mac, Charlie, Maggie and Jim in a room, discussing whether to trade their controversial comments about rape from a congressman in order to break the news two days early about General Petraeus's resignation. Don wants to do it, but Maggie and Mac think the only story that can affect votes at this stage is the congressman one, so the Petraeus story goes on hold (conveniently, because we know no one actually did break that story on election night).

We cut back to the anchor desk as Obama's victory in the swing states continues to play out, and while on a commercial break Taylor informs Will that the senior staff at News Night is all ready to resign if Charlie gets his way with the Lansings to accept their resignations. Will is upset at this news and leaves Taylor stranded at the news desk to go look for everyone. Meanwhile, Jim continues to skype with Hallie in the middle of the newsroom (on the stairs, no less) and Sloan is still concerned over who bought the book with her forged signature from the Sandy relief auction. When Will has everyone around him he lectures them all about staying there even if he's gone, but none of the staff wants to stay, all willing to accept the blame for Genoa and stand by the producer and anchor, a gesture that seems to move Will, if only just a tad.

Charlie is back upstairs at the election party, still trying to beg Leona to let them go, but she's too busy drinking with MGH and laughing about a pregnant woman who ran over her husband because he didn't vote for Romney. Jane Fonda continues to be delightfully goofy here, as she gleefully admits she was high a couple of weeks ago when she ordered them to stay, and even got high again this very night (lol). She also tells Charlie she's decided to leave the decision up to Reese, who's considering it at this very moment, a statement that almost immediately seems to put Charlie in a state of regret, given that Reese had already told him he agreed with their resignations (and as if that wasn't what he'd been begging for for two straight episodes now- I guess he really wants to be a martyr). As Charlie leaves he bumps into Maggie's roommate Lisa, who happens to be serving drinks at the party for extra cash, and who asks him not to tell Jim that she's there (honestly, I'd forgotten all about Lisa, as I don't think we've seen her since the first episode of the season).

When Will's informed that Reese is making the decision, he and Mac leave the news desk to go hang out in the makeup room and leave Elliot and Don a chance to take over their responsibilities and get the audience and staff used to their presence. While in the makeup room they get into another big confrontation about their relationship problems, where Will tells Mac that the engagement ring from last season she thought he'd bought her was actually a practical joke. Mac is incredibly hurt and offended by this, and for once, Will is actually sincere in his apology as she orders him to stand across the room from her so that she won't hit him before he goes back on camera.

Meanwhile, of course someone tweeted a picture from the party of Charlie and Lisa's collision, and Jim does see it, sending him up to visit her and square away the details of their own failed relationship (which I'd also pretty much forgotten), but the real point of this visit is so Jim can tell Lisa to make up with Maggie and help her out in the wake of her haircut (I can't believe I just typed that sentence). Jim has finally figured out, with Hallie's help, that Maggie cut off and died her own hair, which communicates to him the intensity of her trauma in Africa. Jim also realizes he doesn't want to screw things up with Hallie by making her feel stupid, which is something he apparently unintentionally did with Lisa.

Sloan finds out from Neal that the book bidder was anonymous (anyone else see where this is going yet?) and used the name of Tony Curtis's character in Sweet Smell of Success, which sets her on a more determined course to find out who it was, while Don tells MGH he's going to counter sue Jerry Dantana for causing him personal distress by doctoring the tape. He also admits in his own sincere moment that he doesn't actually want to resign from ACN, and just wants to keep on doing the news. Aww.

Back in the control room, the rude anchor lady who sits at the D.C. news desk disses Mac in front of everyone for the Genoa story, but Mac tells Don there's nothing anyone can say that will convince her it wasn't her fault. Back on the air, Sloan keeps getting hilariously cut off every single time she tries to make a point, while Taylor and Will duke it out over his personal politics, which gives Will the chance to give a big grandstanding speech about all the reasons why he remains a Republican and the good values that have gone out of the party while bad ones remain, like being anti-science and homophobic, and most importantly, hating Democrats on principle. Jeff Daniels does get a lot of good material in this episode (it's probably his Emmy submission next year if he's nominated again), as he gets to be apologetic, sincere, morally righteous, and later, as we'll see, bumbling and comedic.

Right before the election is called, Sloan is on her way out of Don's office when she sees, drumroll please...a Sweet Smell of Success poster! No big shock there of course, but I do love her reaction, which is to march into the control room, sign the book and kiss him in front of everybody while slapping the book in his hands, silencing the room as she walks out. I admit it, it might have been cheesy but I loved it and I can't wait to see them as a couple next season.

So, we then go over to Jim and Maggie, who have a big heart to heart, where Maggie finally confesses to cutting her hair because the little boy in Africa was amazed by her blonde locks, and Jim tells her just to remember that she didn't die while she was over there. She tells Jim about the first time she noticed him and we get some flashbacks to what I think was the first or second episode, and then Jim tells her to make up with Lisa. I guess it's a nice moment, but again, the Maggie character does absolutely nothing for me with whatever material they give her, and I continue to hope they can figure out some kind of exit for her next season. Really, at this point I'd rather have Hallie on the show every week.

While the crowds are celebrating on the news over the election being called, Will and Charlie are in his office, where Charlie shares with him his epiphany that he really doesn't think any of them should resign and it was all Jerry's fault after all, for doctoring that tape. Will absentmindedly agrees with him, saying he doesn't think Mac should take all the blame, which suddenly sets him off on his own epiphany, and then Will grabs the engagement ring from his desk (he didn't return it after all) and races around the studio, looking for Mac, who he finally finds at the news desk. After a stuttering speech where he confuses her and himself, he finally tells her he's in love with her and always has been, asking her to marry him. Mac is stunned, but then says yes in a sheepish sort of way, and even though I'm not the biggest fan of this relationship, it is a very sweet moment for the two of them, who joyfully announce it to the entire newsroom, which then breaks out into applause. Of course, this coincides with Reese, Leona, and his Rockette girlfriend showing up in order for Reese to announce that he has decided not to accept their resignations, while Charlie simultaneously takes them back anyway, and just like that the whole crew is set to come back next season (as if there was ever any real danger of anybody quitting).

Our final scene of the season is a montage of everyone celebrating for different reasons (Hallie even helps Jim finally fix Mac's Wikipedia page), and pouring champagne to a cover of "Let My Love Open The Door," and as cheesy and sentimental as it all is, I really do have to say that it got me, and everyone getting together or back together made me just as happy as the people on the screen, at least at this moment. As much as I love to nitpick this show, I did think it was a pretty enjoyable season overall, and much better than the first.

Well, that's a wrap on Season 2! I'll be back next year with the third season and you know, I enjoyed so much of it this year that I actually find myself wishing it wasn't so far away.