2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Writing, Editing, & Other Feature Films

Okay, onto the screenplays and the separate feature film categories. Feeling relatively good about my picks here, since there seem to be clear frontrunners in most of them.

BEST FILM EDITING

• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk
• I, Tonya
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Feeling good about picking Dunkirk for this, since it won the ACE Eddie Award, which is the most predictive guild. Baby Driver actually won the BAFTA though, so that could be a spoiler, but non-Best Picture nominees don’t usually win this category, so it would be a risk to choose that.

Winner: Dunkirk

Alternate: Baby Driver

BEST DOCUMENTARY

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo
• Strong Island

After the presumed frontrunner Jane was snubbed for even a nomination, most people thought that honorary winner Agnes Varda would win this for Faces Places, but I think it’s going to go to Last Men in Aleppo. The Syrian documentary is similar to last year’s doc short winner The White Helmets, and the Syrians who made the film have been banned from coming to the ceremony thanks to our shitheel in chief’s bullshit muslim ban. The Syrian government refuses to expedite their VISA process to let them come and the Academy put out a statement in solidarity with the filmmakers, so I have to believe their movie is winning this now.

Winner: Last Men in Aleppo

Alternate: Faces Places

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

• A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
• The Insult (Lebanon)
• Loveless (Russia)
• On Body and Soul (Hungary)
• The Square (Sweden)

The big frontrunner here seems to be A Fantastic Woman, which stars transgender actress Daniela Vega, who’s gotten a lot of acclaim for the film. Second place would likely be Sweden’s The Square, but I think A Fantastic Woman has it.

Winner: A Fantastic Woman

Alternate: The Square

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

This one’s Coco, no alternate needed. Eventually the Pixar or Disney hit of the year will lose this award to something (anything) else, but I can’t complain about it since Coco’s a good movie.

Winner: Coco

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Call Me By Your Name
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound

There’s really no need for an alternate in this category either, since Call My By Your Name won the WGA, Scripter and BAFTA precursors for this award. 

Winner: Call Me By Your Name

Alternate: Mudbound (if it’s anything else, but it won’t be)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Now this is one of the most interesting categories of the night. I’m going with Get Out, which won the WGA and Critics Choice, but that’s because I’m predicting the movie to win both this and Picture. It could very well go home empty-handed. Three Billboards is pretty beloved and won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and was ineligible for the WGA, so the truth is we don’t know if it would have beaten Get Out there. This is a 50/50 call. And if Billboards were to win this, that signals a lot more love for it than I’m betting on, which means it’s still a real threat for Best Picture.

Winner: Get Out

Alternate: Three Billboards

Dark Horse: Lady Bird (still wondering if this movie will go home empty-handed too)

Ralph and Vanellope Discover the Internet in 'Wreck-it Ralph 2' Teaser

So, both the Pixar and Disney films of 2018 are going to be sequels to past hits, and oddly enough, I'm looking forward to each of them. The Incredibles more so, but I did enjoy Wreck-it Ralph (I will never get over it losing the Oscar to Brave, which was not a good movie), and at the time I thought it was the kind of thing that lended itself well to a sequel. I became less interested in seeing one after Zootopia came out, which is from the same team, and lends itself to sequels even more and with far more interesting potential, but I guess this one was already in the works. I love the idea of them going into the internet though. I'm in.

2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Music, Makeup, Costumes, Sets

Now we’re on to the production design, makeup, costumes, etc. These are always fun, but mostly because they fool me into thinking I’m an expert in each category, when that’s probably not how the Academy even votes for them. I don’t think they critique things the way I would if I were an actual voter.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Darkest Hour
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Victoria & Abdul

Okay, so I think this is Phantom Thread, which is about fashion design, so how could it lose, right? Plus it was nominated for Best Picture and it’s the only category where it could really win, so I would think they’d want to give it something. It also won the BAFTA. On the other hand, there was an upset at the Costume Designers Guild last week, where it lost to The Shape of Water. Hmm. I’ll stick with it anyway.

Winner: Phantom Thread

Alternate: The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Beauty and the Beast (I thought these costumes were garish but sometimes movies win this category for exactly that reason- see Alice in Wonderland).

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water

I think that Blade Runner is the one that deserves to win this, but The Shape of Water won the guild award for it, and also the BAFTA, so it looks like it has it in the bag.

Winner: The Shape of Water

Alternate: Blade Runner 2049

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

• Darkest Hour
• Victoria & Abdul
• Wonder

This very likely goes to the BAFTA and guild winner Darkest Hour, although I wouldn’t necessarily rule out Wonder. Still, best to stick with the BP nominee here.

Winner: Darkest Hour

Alternate: Wonder

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound
• The Shape of Water

This is a closer race I think, even though it shouldn’t be and legendary cinematographer Roger Deakins ought to finally win his Oscar for Blade Runner after a long, stellar career of incredible work (of which this is probably his finest). He also won the ASC (the guild) and the BAFTA, so it’s looking good for him. But there’s a chance for The Shape of Water and also Mudbound, which made history in having Rachel Morrison as the first woman ever nominated for cinematography.

Winner: Blade Runner 2049

Alternate: The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Mudbound

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Dunkirk
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water seems to be the consensus favorite here, after winning the BAFTA and Critics Choice awards. I don’t think it’s a particularly close race for this one.

Winner: The Shape of Water

Alternate: Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “Mighty River,” Mudbound
• “Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name
• “Remember Me,” Coco 
• “Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
• “This is Me,” The Greatest Showman

I think this will go to Coco, although I suppose there’s a chance for Mary J. Blige’s song from Mudbound or the song from the sleeper hit The Greatest Showman. But I think Coco is the safest bet. It's the one that made everybody cry, right?

Winner: “Remember Me”

Alternate: “Mighty River”

Dark Horse: “This is Me”

2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Shorts, Effects & Sound

Time for my Oscar predictions! This year is particularly wide open in the big categories, so I’m glad to start with the techs, as usual. I have a feeling I’m not going to do too well this year overall, because I already know I’m going to predict an upset for Best Picture, but maybe I’ll do better in these smaller categories.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Edith + Eddie
• Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
• Heroin(e)
• Knife Skills
• Traffic Stop

We start with the shorts, and as always, I have no way of seeing these, so I have to go by subject matter and reviews from the few people who have. I know that’s not very reassuring, but from what I’ve read, Heaven is a Traffic Jam seems to be the favorite, although Heroine, which is about opioids, apparently has its fans too.

Winner: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Alternate: Heroin(e)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• DeKalb Elementary
• The Eleven O’Clock
• My Nephew Emmett
• The Silent Child
• Watu Wote/All of Us

I think this one will go to Dekalb Elementary, which is about a school shooting. 

Winner: DeKalb Elementary

Alternate: The Eleven O’Clock

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Dear Basketball
• Garden Party
• Lou
• Negative Space
• Revolting Rhymes

So, Kobe Bryant has a short nominated here, so he’s a possibility, although I hear the film isn’t even very good. And I question whether they’d want to honor him in light of the #MeToo movement. So I’m going with the Pixar mainstay on this one.

Winner: Lou

Alternate: Dear Basketball

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Eh. I think I’m going with Dunkirk for both the sound categories- they usually pick the war movie or the musical for this. That gives Baby Driver an outside shot actually, but I’ll stick with Dunkirk.

Winner: Dunkirk

Alternate: Baby Driver

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Again, sticking with Dunkirk, but Baby Driver would not be a crazy prediction.

Winner: Dunkirk

Alternate: Baby Driver

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Blade Runner 2049
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
• Kong: Skull Island
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

I’m shaky on this one a little bit. In the precursors, Apes won the VFX Guild award, but Blade Runner won the BAFTA. My instinct would say Apes due to the “visual” part of what we’re awarding here, but I do think there’s a chance for Blade Runner. 

Winner: War for the Planet of the Apes

Alternate: Blade Runner 2049

'Black Panther' Tears Up the Box Office in 2nd Weekend

Even in an era where we seem to have record breaking weekends several times a year for the big blockbuster movies, Black Panther has become a true phenomenon. Last weekend it became the fifth movie to debut with over $200 million in its first three days, and $235 million over the four day President's Day weekend, putting it just ahead of Jurassic World's opening two years back, for the third biggest ever. Now, it earns another $108 million for the second highest second weekend ever, just ahead of Jurassic World and behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That places it right next to Jurassic World as the second fastest movie to top $400 million, and now we see just how far it can go in the long run. With a stellar "A+" Cinemascore and already showing strong legs in huge weekday numbers, my guess is that it will at least join the elite "$600 million club," a list that includes just two Star Wars movies, Avatar, Titanic, Jurassic World and The Avengers. And that's just domestic- worldwide it's already at $700 million and will easily cross the billion mark (not sure about 2 billion- that list still only has Titanic, Avatar and The Force Awakens on it).

When you list all these movies next to each other, you see that Star Wars and the James Cameron movies are kind of in another universe, while Jurassic World seems like a hysterical fluke of extreme nostalgia, and then you see that in terms of superhero movies, the first Avengers is the only other one in the genre that had this kind of mass appeal and hype. So the cultural phenomenon of Black Panther is hugely significant when you compare it just to other films in the genre- what it does is transcend it to be put on terms that appeal far beyond it. Needless to say it could likely become Marvel's most successful movie ever, and that is quite a feat. 

'Three Billboards' Wins Best Picture at the BAFTAS

What is wrong with the Brits? Okay, so they LOVED Three Billboards, but so much that it has to get Best British Film AND Best Film? The last movie that did that at the BAFTAS was The King's Speech. Whatever. I'm not buying it for the Oscars. I think that movie will probably take Actress and Supporting Actor (it appears all the acting categories are inexplicably locked this year) but I'm going all in for Get Out. The preferential ballot will save the day, in my opinion. I should also mention that the BAFTAS tend to be more predictive for the tech categories rather than the top ones anyway- so it's looking good for The Shape of Water to come away with a lot of tech Oscars and probably for Blade Runner to finally get Roger Deakins that cinematography award.

2018 BAFTA WINNERS:

• Best Film: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Director: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
• Leading Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
• Leading Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
• Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
• Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
• Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
• Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
• Outstanding British Film: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• EE Rising Star Award: Daniel Kaluuya
• Original Music: The Shape of Water
• Make-up and Hair: Darkest Hour
• Animated Film: Coco
• Costume Design: Phantom Thread
• Best Documentary: I Am Not Your Negro
• Editing: Baby Driver
• British Short Animation: Poles Apart
• British Short Film: Cowboy Dave
• Film not in the English language: The Handmaiden
• Production Design: The Shape of Water
• Special Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049 
• Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer: I Am Not a Witch
• Sound: Dunkirk
• Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049

The Parr Family is Back in 'The Incredibles 2'

YES!! Now this is a sequel I'm excited about! 2004's The Incredibles was one of my favorite movies of the decade, and it still holds up insanely well. With writer-director Brad Bird back for this sequel, it looks just as good, even if I'm a little puzzled as to why they seem to be picking up right where they left off. I really thought they'd age the characters if it ever came back for sequels- think about how great it would be to change up the family dynamic and have Violet and Dash as teenagers, with Jack-Jack as the little kid (then the problem of recasting Dash's voice actor wouldn't have happened). But this one looks like it's all about Helen going back to work as Elastigirl, while Bob takes care of the kids, which is a good idea too. Hopefully they can do a time jump if there's a third one.

'Get Out' and 'Call Me By Your Name' Win Top WGA Awards

The Writers Guild gave out its screenplay awards tonight, with Jordan Peele winning in Original for Get Out and James Ivory winning in Adapted for Call Me By Your Name. The adapted screenplay Oscar is pretty much locked and loaded now, because Ivory also won last night at the USC Scripter awards for Call Me By Your Name, which honors the script and its source material- the combination of winning the Scripter and the WGA never fails in predicting the Oscar for adapted screenplay. Original screenplay is now heavily favored towards Get Out, but I also think this guild has become more important lately in predicting Best Picture. Last year Moonlight won this over La La Land, and it turned out to be the only guild it won on its way to an upset Best Picture win. Spotlight also won the WGA on its way to winning Best Picture, where it was the first film in five decades to win the top prize with just two Oscars- screenplay and picture. Could Get Out do the same thing? I think it could. The Shape of Water is still the frontrunner, having won the DGA and PGA (and it could very well win the BAFTA next week), but I'm feeling the broad consensus forming around the popular horror film, which as we all know has tons to say about America, and that arguably makes it a weightier movie than The Shape of Water or Lady Bird (and it's not divisive, like the other option for this category with Three Billboards, which wasn't eligible for the WGA, but is nominated at the Oscars).

Sony Debuts First 'Venom' Teaser Trailer

I don't know how good an idea it is to showcase a Venom teaser without, you know, Venom in it, but Tom Hardy is clearly going to be giving it his all, as per usual. It's also strange to be doing a Venom movie without Spider-Man, but I guess the character is popular enough to stand on his own (or so Sony hopes).

Josh Brolin is Cable in New 'Deadpool 2' Teaser

I was a pretty big fan of the first Deadpool but I do wonder about the novelty factor. Will it wear so well the second time around? And was Tim Miller's creative direction more important to the movie's success than Ryan Reynolds thinks? I guess we'll find out in May.

More Super Bowl Teasers for 'Infinity War,' 'Jurassic World 2,' 'Red Sparrow'

During yesterday's game (yay Eagles!) there were a boatload of teasers and glimpses at the would be blockbusters coming out this year. Here's a recap of the most buzzed about ones:

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (May 4)

Everyone's really excited about this, which brings even more characters into the mega-universe, like the Guardians, Spider-Man, Black Panther and Doctor Strange, but I pretty much hated the last Avengers movie, so I'm meh on it. What I most noticed about this was just about everyone got a new hairstyle since the last one.

JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (June 22)

Jurassic World was one of the loudest, dumbest movies I'd seen in a good decade or so, and the sequel looks to be following in that one's tone for the most part. Who thought it was a good idea to bring those stupid hamster balls back?

RED SPARROW (March 2)

I haven't actually posted anything for this movie yet, so I figured I'd throw this one in here. It's coming out next month, and it looks pretty iffy. Most of my skepticism comes from the fact that it's from the hack Hunger Games director Francis Lawrence, but who knows. Also not too sure about JLaw's Russian accent. Hasn't this been done a million times already? Wasn't this similar to the Angelina Jolie movie Salt? Actually, it looks exactly like the begged for Black Widow movie fans wanted, if Marvel had ever agreed to let a Black Widow movie happen. I guess we'll see if anyone's into this.

First Trailer for 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' Is Out

Well, here it is. The young Han Solo movie is coming and here's our first look at Alden Ehrenreich stepping into the shoes of the (most?) iconic Star Wars hero. Although the weird thing for me about the very idea of this movie has always been twofold: 1) we've literally already seen Han Solo as a young man- that was 33-year-old Harrison Ford in the first Star Wars and now that era Han is a new guy, and 2) this character wasn't really iconic because of what was on the page- it was entirely Harrison Ford's personal charisma, his demeanor, his style. That was all just him. So the love of that character was never so much about Han Solo as it was about cool, lackadaisical Harrison Ford taking over the silly, grandiose Star Wars universe and bringing it down to earth with his I-don't-give-a-shit attitude. Can this dude replicate that? Doesn't look like it to me. I wish this was a Lando movie, to be honest.